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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 10:24 am 
Based on the work of Joseph Schumpeter:

Image

Prediction: No matter who is in charge, the next upturn in the economy will begin in 2020, based on the next predicted wave of new technology.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:46 am 
Damn. I can't wait that long. I've got a mortgage to pay every month.

One can speculate on which technologies will emerge to carry the economy. I'll toss in any viable tech that compensates for environmental degradation and global warming. There are some interesting ones out there. Also some that are never going to become cost-effective.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 3:00 pm 
nanotechnology perhaps? photon-in-a-box? ;)

maybe it'll involve Tritium and Deuterium?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 3:32 pm 
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Energizer Bunny
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Posts: 1634
That's not an economic indicator. The y axis is titled "pace of innovation", which is a technological indicator.

Vorn


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 3:40 pm 
Vorn the Unspeakable wrote:
That's not an economic indicator. The y axis is titled "pace of innovation", which is a technological indicator.

Vorn


True.

But observe the correlation of the pace of innovation with known behavior of the economy.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:13 pm 
Thats terribly simplified. It implies, for example, that water powered technology didn't exist before 1785. Does he show his assumptions somewhere?

As an economic indicator it is terribly flawed. According to that graph, the 1930s were approaching a peak... in reality there was a rather nasty economic depression.


Last edited by Pronto on Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:19 pm 
Cool. It means that in sixty years, we'll have major technological innovations all the time.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:53 pm 
eventually we'll end up having innovations every second!


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 6:13 pm 
Attilla wrote:
eventually we'll end up having innovations every second!


That's what we call a "Tech Singularity."


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2004 6:33 pm 
And of course, the downside of having rapid technical innovations is that the 'crest' of the wave hits sooner - you get economic and social benefit from each wave of technology for a much, much shorter period.

It's an open question as to whether the 'tech singularity' will actually end up as some sort of 'End of History' event, or whether society will just adjust to rate of change and redefine 'technological advancement' in some sort of mega-wave form that actually lasts a reasonable time. (And, of course, leaves everything between 1800 and today as a single slow-cresting mega-wave that us poor iggerant apes didn't have the ability to exploit.)


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