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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 5:05 pm 
Patched together from various news sources such as http://news.com.com/New+copy-proof+DVDs ... 76375.html and http://www.technewsworld.com/story/40617.html

Quote:
Macrovision Corp. today plans to unveil technology that it claims can block 97% of the DVD-copying software that pirates use without interfering with a DVD's playability or picture quality.


How quickly do you think people are going to find these 3% of ripping programs and standardize on them?

Quote:
Adam Gervin, senior marketing director for Macrovision's Entertainment Technologies Group, told TechNewsWorld.

...

"Since studios are losing over a billion dollars a year as a result of these rippers, we believe that we can prevent 97 percent of that revenue loss through RipGuard DVD," he added.


Here he pulls out two completely imaginary numbers. First the Revenue lost probably assumes that every copy would have been a sale had that copy protection been in place. Secondly he assumes that 97% of people who have the broken rippers will just give up and not try the 3% that aren't broken.

1. Home users probably have already purchased it and are looking to excercise fair use by copying their DVDs to their laptops or pcs. These are the only ones who will even be annoyed at the new copy protections. The ones who are doing it to excercise their legal rights.

2. People who are trying movies off the internet would have probably never purchased it. They won't be bothered by this because there will always be someone who can get around the copy protection and put it on the internet. It only takes one person getting around it...

3. The pirates who genuinely are costing the studios money are professional ones, frequently in china, and if there is a way of getting around it they WILL find it. They will then sell illegal copies wide and far. Each one of these copies has the potential of being a lost sale, as long as the person buying it would have paid the higher price for it and not gone off to watch something else instead.

The end result is, 3 will keep costing the studios money, 2 will keep downloading movies, and 1 will be inconvienienced and possibly have to turn to the internet to get a copy of a movie they already own in physical form, thus encouraging piracy.

Quote:
Gervin said Macrovision engineers have spent several years looking at how various DVD-copying software packages work and have devised ways to tweak the encoding of a DVD to block most of them.
...
Someone using one of the ripping tools on a protected DVD might simply find their software crashing, or be presented with error messages instead of a copy.


How long will it take for people to figure out what bug in DeCSS they're exploiting and patch it? Sure they say they can update it as it is cracked, but that does nothing for the thousands of movies released using the cracked codes.

Quote:
If adopted, the technology could be a welcome financial shot in the arm for Macrovision. The company has seen its revenue from DVD copy protection fall over recent quarters and has increasingly been looking to other businesses to make up for the shortfall.


And if it is quickly circumvented, it could prove their demise.
It only takes 1 person copying it. If there are 100 people trying 100 different programs and 3 of them work, then you've just left as much piracy in place as you had before.

I just don't understand why these people are going after the home users and not after the people who sell billions of pirated movies on EBay, and on street corners. These are the people who are actually costing them money. These are the people who you could legitimately say the copies they sold represented lost revenue. But every copy protection scheme goes after Home users and circumvents Fair Use for home users.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 6:35 pm 
Creating more copy protection and lobbying the government to create legislation are the easy no-brainer things to do.

The situation still isn't bad enough (and of course there's no evidence that demonstrates that piracy is 99.44% of thier current problem) that the current media giants have been forced to realize that a new paradigm is needed to insure future profitability.

Until then the safe course for all the executives is to try to keep thier present system alive.

Here's hoping that *everything* becomes available on a pay per view system. I wouldn't even mind if they mixed a few minutes (<=10) of ads into the PPV stream.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2005 11:08 pm 
Kaz: Nice sum up. That's one of my biggest issues with almost every major corperation today. MS pulls the same with their software, resulting in the pirate copy being more capable than the legal one, easier to use, and free.

I don't see many companies that think about it from this point of view... it's confusing why not. Even if they're locked in traditional mindsets, the logic is pretty solid. For example, I'm one of those hypothetical 1->2 transitions. :) Now I just stick with 2 because 1 isn't worth the bother (or the cash, often).

Another facet of this is region coding, artificial market control. That's what converted me. We have a lot of movies in European region coding we can't play in the US... enter the intarweb. Another reason they do this is to try and squeeze more out of the customer (or consumer, as they put it).

In the realm of games, safedisc has always been a problem. Part of the problem in this area is that few stores take back a shitty game unless they're forced to by their state/country's law. This leads to "demoing" the game using a pirate version before buying... in many cases it's simply not worth buying the game once you've gone to this point, unless it's spectacular and you feel the need to support the company.

Short story: Yeah, anti-piracy seems to almost universally support piracy. Strange.

BB: The problem with pay per view is that subscription models for everything is a dangerous idea. Imagine having to pay for windows monthly. They've already gone to a subscription model for corperate customers, I believe. Too much room for bad models here. The only one I've seen so far that I like is Wine's (pay 5 bucks each time you want a month's worth of updates, meaning you can pay 5 now and 5 six months down the road for a fully upgraded copy).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:49 am 
Raif wrote:
---snip---

BB: The problem with pay per view is that subscription models for everything is a dangerous idea. Imagine having to pay for windows monthly. They've already gone to a subscription model for corperate customers, I believe. Too much room for bad models here. The only one I've seen so far that I like is Wine's (pay 5 bucks each time you want a month's worth of updates, meaning you can pay 5 now and 5 six months down the road for a fully upgraded copy).


Yeah, letting MS charge per hour for thier OS would be a bad thing, unless the price was right. (A negative number.)

Fortunatly I have enough windows licenses for thier pre-activation stuff (And if I need more I can just go to the local PC recycler and buy them with some chunk of cheap hardware.) that I don't expect to need to personally care about Gate's antics any time soon.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 12:01 am 
AFAIK, Gates is now just a PR guy, and a good one. He's quite skilled at skirting the issues and using damning questions to pitch the next technology... must be all that practice. Ballmer is CEO now.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:04 pm 
Raif wrote:
BB: The problem with pay per view is that subscription models for everything is a dangerous idea. Imagine having to pay for windows monthly. They've already gone to a subscription model for corperate customers, I believe. Too much room for bad models here. The only one I've seen so far that I like is Wine's (pay 5 bucks each time you want a month's worth of updates, meaning you can pay 5 now and 5 six months down the road for a fully upgraded copy).


It gets even scarier when it's mission critical software. Say you buy TurboTax deluxe. It comes with activation and must be licensed yearly. If you ever have an audit you have to go back to the old version of the software. Companies are notoriously bad about keeping old software working, so what if they take down or mess up the activation server for this old version and don't realize it? They actually told people that they would have to uninstall it off old systems before installing it on new ones. In many cases, the people had formatted the drive on the old system by this point. This is why TurboTax had a sudden rush of refunds last year and why I bought TaxCut instead.

Windows XP is another example of mission critical software that could just stop working if microsoft stops supporting it or paying attention to it. 2k and below don't have that problem.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:59 pm 
Kazriko wrote:
Windows XP is another example of mission critical software that could just stop working if microsoft stops supporting it or paying attention to it. 2k and below don't have that problem.

The illegal version doesn't have this flaw, which feeds into my point above. :P

In related news, MS has apparently decided through a very contrived method to disable any windows downloads requested from WINE... cute. Always with the antitrusting.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 4:10 pm 
Raif wrote:
In related news, MS has apparently decided through a very contrived method to disable any windows downloads requested from WINE... cute. Always with the antitrusting.


While I agree that this sort of behavior is petty, what does it have to do with breaking up monopolies? Or were just making a pun on the word 'trust'?


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 5:29 pm 
Schol-R-LEA wrote:
Raif wrote:
In related news, MS has apparently decided through a very contrived method to disable any windows downloads requested from WINE... cute. Always with the antitrusting.


While I agree that this sort of behavior is petty, what does it have to do with breaking up monopolies? Or were just making a pun on the word 'trust'?


Very simple. They're doing that to keep their monopoly on WindowsAPI based application execution. Executing windows apps in linux is breaking up their monopoly, so perhaps what he meant to say was Anti-Anti-trusting. ;)

Breaking application compatability is nothing new with microsoft. Look at the Win32S wars with OS/2's windows compatability.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:19 pm 
Kaz: close, yeah. Actually keep in mind that this also breaks downloading patches for unrelated software (non-windows products, such as Office and so forth).

In other words they're voiding the agreement they made (whether implicit or explicit I'm not sure) that patches for your product would be available to you. Also keep in mind that this product could be legally obtained and you're still banned from getting patches until you download them using a windows machine.

Using one product to leverage (read: force) you into using another is their time-honored tradition. Anti-anti-trust. :P


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:12 am 
So what's to stop me from writing a program that dumps all that lovely digital video in my accelerator's famebuffer and doing the same thing with whatever my soundcard's processing? Anyone that can access the lower functions of a computer should be able to beat this or just about any copy protection scheme if they really want to. Hell, can't you get cards that play dvds using hardware? It'd be like having a card that accelerates ripping! :twisted:


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:19 pm 
That's the point kaz was making originally, yeah. :)


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