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The Nightstar Zoo • View topic - Corruption at the IPCC

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 Post subject: Corruption at the IPCC
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:21 pm 
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 9:41 pm 
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DAMN THOSE FUCKING TREE HUGGERS

I'm curious; where can I find a copy of this early draft?

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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 11:18 pm 


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Send a letter to Senator James M. Inhofe and ask if he can supply you with a copy of that original draft from before the political editing was done.

Where they get the "scientist approved" bull from is from the "corrected" by politicians versions of those UN reports and studies.

With some "corrected" UN reports in hand, environmentalists go to other politicians (most of whom probably don't know the chemical composition of water, let alone the average insolation per square meter of the Earth's surface) and demand that "Something must be done!"

The media, being what they are, smell blood in the water (if it bleeds it leads) and pick up the story, asking politicians what they plan to do about this horrible problem.

As for the industry people going along with it, they're just trying to prevent as much damage to their businesses as they can.
-----

Shows how a bunch of rational scientists can get together to study something, then with a little editing, a few politicians can completely reverse what the rational scientists said.

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August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2014

"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:30 am 
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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 1:24 pm 
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Rereading that part of Inhofe's speech:

First, how would the politicians manage to make such an apparently sweeping change to the summary of the report, without drawing complaints from the scientists, science organizations, and politicians who had worked on it and without making changes to the text that was being summarized? Scientists contribute to the report as well; the IPCC report is a summarization of the relevant science. Surely someone who took part in forming the report would have said something if the results had been so drastically altered.

Second, where is this draft? I can't find a copy anywhere online.

Third, it looks like the report is being quote-mined: i.e., sentences are being taken without context. Creationists do it all the time, and it's catching on among other branches of bad science. Let's look at the first sentence: "No study to date has positively attributed all or part [of the climate change observed to date] to anthropogenic causes."

Inhofe, apparently, would have us believe that this sentence means that there is no evidence whatsoever to lead anyone to conclude that climate change is even partly anthropogenic -- a sweeping claim. But let's look at the first part: "No study [...] has positively attributed". What this means is that no study had, at the time, found a positive direct link between humans and climate change -- a smoking gun, if you will. But just because there is no direct evidence does not mean there is no evidence at all. For instance, evidence of climate change with no known natural cause might not be a direct link to humans, but it would still be compelling evidence, especially when combined with other studies. It's hard to determine what context this sentence is in, since Inhofe never supplies it. But I'd be willing to bet that it's followed soon after by a "but" or "however", and then a mention of the indirect lines of evidence leading to such a conclusion. In essence, what the sentence was probably meant to convey was that while there was no known direct evidence linking humans to climate change at the time, there was a lot of indirect evidence to suggest that there was still such a link. There's not much difference in intent, then, between the sentence and its replacement: there is evidence to suggest anthropogenic climate change. Of course, if there were a copy of this mysterious early draft to examine, we could see what it really said and meant and put this to rest.

Fourth, Senator Inhofe is not exactly an expert.

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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:17 pm 
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More political BS The Weather Channel Climate Expert Refuses to Retract Call for Decertification for Global Warming Skeptics

Meterologist reply

Scientists have been hollering about politicians 'adjustments' to the real science, but YOU have to dig to find that out because the media refuses to publicize anyone who dares to counter the Al Gore's of the world on this issue.

It appears that you prefer to be a sheep, led around by political scare-mongers, rather than do any fact checking for yourself.

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August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2014

"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:43 pm 
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And then there's this...

More Than 15,000 Scientists Protest Kyoto Accord; Speak Out Against Global Warming Myth


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:16 pm 
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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 6:16 am 
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Climate scientists feeling the heat As public debate deals in absolutes, some experts fear predictions 'have created a monster'

Polar Ice Cap Studies Refute Catastrophic Global Warming Theories

There's getting to be more and more skepticisim over the theory that humans are the primary cause of climate change, not just from laypeople but from climate scientists and even from some who started the ball rolling.

Will somebody put out that light?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/s ... 30320.html

Surely a 100+ year upward trend in solar output simply can't have a thing to do with temperatures on Earth...

And finally, do any of the 'resistiance is futile' proponents of human caused climate change ever mention the fact that Earth's axis is not stable? Its angle wobbles a bit all the time and for a few thousand years it's been tilting more upright- heading towards its minimum angle. Several thousand years from now it'll be headed back towards its maximum tilt.
Less tilt = an overall milder climate, warmer polar regions but not too much effect on the equatorial region.

The Arctic and Antarctic circles are headed poleward approximately 200 meteres each 18.6 years, advancing and retreating with the short-period wobble but still averaging more towards the poles than away. The data I've found on it gives an average total variance of around 76~100 kilometers range from minimum to maximum distance. That's quite a large piece of surface area. Any sign or published number stating the degree of lattitude of the Arctic or Antarctic circle is only right at the time the data was measured for it. There's most likely some complex equation to express the variable number that is the latitude of those circles.
(Edit: corrected per year to 18.6 years.)

Another component that absolutely nothing can be done to alter is the precession of Earth's axis. The way it's currently pointed results in less of a temperature variance between summer and winter in the northern hemisphere than there is in the southern hemisphere. Thus the north has an overall more temperate- cooler climate. The greater southern variance is what drives the powerful storms around Antarctica in the spring and fall.

As precession moves the axis around, eventually it'll be tilted so that the springs and summers happen at the apsis points of the orbits, which will even out the summers and winters in the north and south.

But all those hard facts about the planet beneath out feet get lost in the hoo-ha over whether or not human activity has any net effect on climate.

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Fandemonium!
August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2014

"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


Last edited by bizzybody on Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:40 am, edited 2 times in total.

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"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:36 am 


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:49 am 
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Living in a state free from the burdens of privacy and democracy since 2008-06-18.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:06 am 
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Nothing about the climate is ever 100% global.

Ohhh. This one's good. An economist VS a certified meteorologist (y'know, a scientist).

What is a Meteorologist?

Yet another example of the "We're right, everyone else is wrong and should be silenced!" attitude becoming so prevalent among the pro-anthropogenic climate change crowd.

There's plenty to debate, but when one side (the side you support) doesn't want to...

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Fandemonium!
August 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2014

"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:54 pm 
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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:01 am 
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:03 am 


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:43 am 
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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 6:35 pm 


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2007 8:40 am 


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 12:33 pm 
Might I suggest that we all stop quoting secondary, politically oriented sources such as Inhofe's blog, An Inconvenient Truth, RealClimate, and the WSJ, and reference only relevant peer-reviewed primary sources? Just a thought.

In any case, the US has good political and economic reasons completely separate from climate change to eliminate fossil fuel use, especially imported fossil fuel. Quite frankly, at this point the oil industry is a threat to national security, and localization of energy production would be a tremendous boon to the economy, especially in economically weak regions.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 12:26 am 


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 10:22 am 
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Given that the IPCC is basically just a place to bring together the results of the peer-reviewed work, do you suppose we can get away with using that?

(Also, most of the people who contribute to RealClimate actually are PhD's and several of the entries there have a bibliography to peer-reviewed material at the end. I'm not sure why this doesn't count.)

(Also also, this.)

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Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, grab es tief unten im Keller ein.
Später dann graben es andere aus, und nennen dein Haus das Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, leg auch ihre weißen Schädel hinein.
Mit Beton gießt du es aus, das Fundament vom Knochenhaus.
Scharr, scharr, verscharr das Gebein, da ist noch Platz, da paßt noch wer rein.
Hier tobte sich der Teufel aus, unten im Keller im Knochenhaus.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:45 am 
Just as a quick snipe, I should point out that the '1970s ice age prediction' thing is an embarrassment for both sides, but more so for the anti-warming side. Why? three reasons. First, the prediction was that there would be a cooling trend over the next thousand years; no one expected it to have a noticeable impact during a single human lifetime. Even at their fastest advance, glaciers normally advance or retreat at a rate of a meter or so per year (EDIT: not century, I was thinking originally of writing '100 meters per century', but realized it made more sense to go by year. In any case, I was wrong: I've seen at least one source say it can be up to to 50m in a year, or 5km per century). The rapid retreat over the past twenty years really is unprecedented in the available geological record.

Second, the prediction is still considered correct: most climatologists who support the global warming model agree that there should have been a cooling trend over the 1980s and 1990s if historical patterns had followed. That there wasn't indicates that something unusual is going on - and while it doesn't imply anthropogenic warming per se, it is not an argument against it by any means.

Third, the whole idea of an 'imminent ice age' is nothing more than bad journalism, because it ignores the fact that, technically speaking, we are in an ice age now; IIUC, any era where there is permanent glaciation outside of the polar circles fits the technical definition of an ice age. No serious scientist was ever claiming otherwise; it was media misunderstanding that spread the 'glaciers are marching on us' nonsense. This was addressed back in the 1970s by the better popular science writers of the time.

Keep in mind, too that the most widespread prediction for an ice age did not come from climatology at all, but from a hysterical doomsday book which claimed that the Earth's poles would suddenly and violently shift towards the equator in April 2002, a claim which was widely conflated with the real scientific data.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2007 3:27 am 
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"I am a machine. I am a weapon of war. I am a destroyer of life in the service of life, the sword and shield of my human creators." Bolo Invincibilus, Mark XXIII, Model B (Experimental) 0075-NKE "Nike".


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:06 pm 
You really want to do this? Alright. We'll start with Wegman.

Dr. Edward Wegman is a mathmatication, not a climate guy. Most of his professional articles have been on unimodal density, not real world work. The opinions he voices in that article seem to

Now, unless you've actually dealt with non-reproducable scientific data before (macro climates are just such a field) you don't know this, but the sample space and variance is almost never good enough for people who only work on hypothetical numbers or even with lab data. Acceptable varation for lab stuff is usually +/- .05%, for field work, it's a lot more broad, and varies given the data. A long term climate survery for example, where data being used pushes back several hundred years, the error allowance is greater than .05%.

However, the Wegman article isn't about the IPCC, it's about the Mann hockey stick.


Last edited by Dark_Tiger on Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2007 7:07 pm 
As an aside, you made me read a mathmatics peer reviewed article, and for that I will have to kill you.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:43 am 


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